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Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T01:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46585/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-06-03T01:53Z. It is also faintly seen as a halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but is partially obscured by the pylon. It is also seen as a halo to the NW in GOES CCOR-1. This CME is associated with an M9.3 class flare from AR 14455 (N13W10) that peaked at 2026-06-03T01:36Z. The flare can best be seen in SDO AIA 131. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-04T14:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 03:33
Radial velocity (km/s): 1763
Longitude (deg): 10
Latitude (deg): 9
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes:

Lead Time: 43.38 hour(s)
Difference: 14.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2026-06-03T09:00Z

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